The All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate in Osun State, Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO, may have an advantage over the incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke ahead of the August 15 governorship election, according to a political analysis by Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Special Duties, Tunde Rahman.
In an article titled “Osun Governorship Poll: Advantage AMBO,” Rahman identified party structure, voter sentiment towards the incumbent administration and alignment with the Federal Government as key factors that could influence the outcome of the election.
According to him, the Osun APC has spent the last two years rebuilding its grassroots structure following its defeat in the 2022 governorship election.
He said the party remained active at the ward and local government levels, with former political office holders and grassroots leaders helping to strengthen its mobilisation ahead of the poll.
Rahman said Oyebamiji’s campaign had capitalised on the structure by bringing together local government leaders, former lawmakers, former councillors and youth leaders.
He argued that the strength of the grassroots machinery could become decisive, particularly in an election where relatively small vote margins could determine the winner in individual local government areas.
The writer also highlighted what he described as political challenges facing Governor Adeleke.
Rahman claimed that internal divisions within Adeleke’s political camp, coupled with the movement from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the Accord Party and subsequent political developments, had affected the governor’s political structure.
He also pointed to the defection of some federal lawmakers from the PDP to the APC, arguing that the development had further strengthened the opposition party ahead of the election.
On governance, Rahman said Adeleke came into office in 2022 with considerable goodwill among Osun voters but argued that the administration’s popularity was being tested by allegations of poor governance, nepotism, uneven infrastructure distribution and concerns over some government projects.
Rahman described Oyebamiji as a technocrat with experience in both public and private-sector administration.
Oyebamiji previously served as Managing Director of Omoluabi Investment Company during the administration of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola.
He later became Commissioner for Finance under former Governor Isiaka Adegboyega Oyetola.
The APC candidate subsequently served as Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority before resigning to contest the Osun governorship election.
His campaign has focused on job creation, agricultural development, economic growth and fiscal discipline.
Rahman further argued that the relationship between Osun State and the Federal Government could play a role in the election.
He noted that President Bola Tinubu’s APC controls the Federal Government and said the prospect of closer cooperation with Abuja had become part of the APC’s campaign message.
He referenced ongoing federal infrastructure projects in Osun, including work on the Ibadan-Ife-Ilesa highway and the reconstruction of the Ibadan-Iwo-Osogbo road.
According to him, the projects could strengthen the argument for political alignment with the Federal Government among some voters and traditional institutions.
Rahman identified Osogbo, Ilesa, Ile-Ife, Iwo and Ede as five major areas that could have a significant impact on the election.
He described Osogbo as a politically competitive urban area where voter mobilisation and campaign narratives could influence the overall momentum.
Ilesa, he said, remains an important APC base, although the participation of other opposition candidates could affect the distribution of votes.
On Iwo, Rahman claimed that the political atmosphere appeared to be shifting towards Oyebamiji, while noting that the area had previously shown support for Adeleke.
He also cited the large crowd that welcomed Oyebamiji during his campaign in Ile-Ife as an indication of support for the APC candidate.
Ede, Adeleke’s hometown, remains a stronghold for the governor, although Rahman argued that the APC could reduce the incumbent’s margin in the area.
The article also referenced an opinion poll which reportedly placed the APC ahead of Accord.
According to the analysis, the APC was projected to secure 48 per cent of the votes, while Accord was placed at 45 per cent.
The poll was reportedly based on a sample of about 1,850 respondents across Osun’s 30 local government areas, with factors such as voter registration, previous turnout and demographic composition considered.
The pollsters reportedly said Accord had enjoyed stronger momentum earlier in the campaign but that APC’s mobilisation had improved in the final days.
They also identified targeted mobilisation of groups such as market women and trade associations as part of the APC’s campaign strategy.
The pollsters further stated that the temporary freezing of accounts linked to the Adeleke administration by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) initially affected APC’s momentum and generated sympathy for Accord, but that the effect was not sustained after the order was reversed.
Despite the reported advantage for AMBO, Rahman acknowledged that Adeleke remains a strong contender because of his incumbency and existing support base.
He said voter turnout, particularly among young and first-time voters, could ultimately determine the outcome.
With the election scheduled for August 15, 2026, Rahman concluded that the contest would effectively be a choice between continuity under Adeleke and a political reset under Oyebamiji.
For now, he argued, the indicators appear to favour the APC candidate.
